Most 2026 planning conversations still orbit the same components. Processors. Memory. Accelerators. These are the parts that set budgets and define architectures. Passives tend to sit in the background, assumed to be available until there is a reason to think otherwise.
That assumption is beginning to feel less comfortable. In a recent market analysis, Fusion Worldwide pointed to early signs that passive components are tightening sooner in the cycle than many teams expect. Not through a single disruption or headline shortage, but through a slow narrowing of options as capacity is absorbed by committed programs.
Why Passives Become a Problem After Decisions Are Made
Passive components rarely fail loudly. Availability erodes unevenly, often after designs are fixed and qualification windows have closed. By the time lead times extend or alternates disappear, the system has already lost flexibility.
The industry has seen this pattern before. In the 2018–2019 MLCC shortage, the issue was not demand in isolation. It was how demand shifted. Higher-capacitance parts were pulled into automotive and premium platforms just as manufacturers reduced investment in general-purpose variants. Capacity didn’t vanish overnight. It became selective.
Once that happened, recovery was slow.
A Familiar Shape Is Reappearing
The current market does not resemble a crisis. But the shape is starting to look familiar. Passive content per system continues to rise, particularly in server, networking, and power-dense platforms. At the same time, manufacturers have been cautious about expanding output following the oversupply conditions of 2024.
That combination matters. When capacity is planned conservatively, it does not take much redirection for certain specifications to become difficult to secure. The effect is rarely uniform. Some parts remain plentiful. Others quietly stretch.
Where Tension Starts to Build
What tends to expose the problem is timing. Programs that commit early are absorbed into long production runs. Programs that arrive later find fewer options, even when overall market utilisation appears reasonable.
This is where passive components regain their ability to disrupt schedules. Not because they are scarce everywhere, but because they become scarce in the exact combinations of value, voltage, size, and qualification that modern platforms rely on.
Fusion Worldwide’s analysis reflects this early-stage tension. It does not predict a shortage. It points to a narrowing window where assumptions about passive availability start to matter again.
You can read Fusion Worldwide’s full analysis on emerging passive component supply risk for 2026 on their website here.
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