With recent reports revealing that Russia may be looking to skip EUV and go straight into X-Ray lithography, many are wondering if they will achieve it, and if so, what that means for the rest of the world. What challenges do countries like Russia currently face, what has been revealed, and could we be entering the next phase of semiconductor manufacturing?
The Challenges Faced By Isolated Countries
Over the past few years the actions of countries like China and Russia have prompted the West to limit their access to technology. At the same time, the use of their technology has also been limited in the west, with companies such as Huawei being blacklisted in key infrastructure.
Because of these highly restrictive actions, these countries have faced numerous challenges with developing new technologies. For example, China has not had access to the latest GPUs for training AIs, while Russia has outright been blocked from accessing even the simplest of components, especially those used in military applications.
These challenges have greatly hindered the ability to develop any new technologies, making it harder to push the limits of what is physically possible. At the same time, it also prevents these nations from being able to compete globally in the tech space, which is now the single biggest source of new investment and wealth creation.
However, in recent years, the very actions that have restricted the development of these countries are now seeing a massive shift towards becoming independent from the rest of the world. In fact, it could even be argued that this very desire to become independent as a result of the restrictions imposed by the West could make the nations yet again a threat to the West, fulfilling the prophesy of “one often meets their destiny on the road which they take to avoid it”.
Russia and China are already starting their own semiconductor industries, with China having seen major success in this area (especially with the use of open-source projects such as RISC-V). However, becoming independent is no small feat, requireing massive amounts of resources and finding the best talent to achieve this goal, something which countries like Russia and China have historically struggled with.
Russia To Jump Over EUV for X-Ray Lithography
Recently, reports have surfaced regarding a proposal put forward by researchers from the Keldysh Research Center, TRINITI, and the Institute for Spectroscopy of the Russian Academy of Sciences that could enable moving past EUV lithography.
According to the proposal, the new X-ray lithography method would not only allow for 1–3nm semiconductors, but theoretically may even be able to go as low as 0.1nm. If achieved, such a capability would put Russia well ahead of the West, and could even see a new era of semiconductor design.
But how would such a lithography system work? As described by the researchers, current EUV systems are quickly reaching their limits, mainly due to the need to increase optical precision, power, and use of multiple patterning. Instead, the proposed X-ray lithography system would take advantage of 6.7nm soft X-ray radiation. This would not only provide significantly shorter wavelengths compared to EUV, but would also allow for far smaller transistor structures.
To generate the X-ray radiation, the researchers turn to rare-earth metals that can produce plasmas upon exposure to laser light. According to the researchers, this combination of laser and metal can create high efficiency X-ray generation at the desired wavelength of 6.7nm.
At the same time, the researchers also noted that unlike current EUV systems which require molten tin droplets, the gas-based target system using gadolinium will likely reduce contamination of mirrors and vacuum systems. This would also reduce debris that would otherwise cause damage to the final device.
However, the researchers also noted that the system introduced major engineering challenges, such as maintaining a stable vapour of gadolinium. To achieve this, the researchers are looking at using a tungsten-rhenium alloy crucible to hold the gadolinium, which can withstand temperatures exceeding 3000˚C, and utilising a custom-designed heating system.
Another challenge faced by the researchers is that the current proposal uses laser heating, but this requires the use of a buffer gas to prevent laser absorption. Instead, the researchers are also looking at electron beam heating as a viable alternative, which eliminates the need for a buffer gas. Thus, it is believed that an electron beam system would not only be simpler to operate, but also reduce the overall power consumed.
Finally, it was noted that while the research is still in its infancy, the researchers will first look to build laboratory prototypes before turning their attention to full-fledged devices. But despite this, the project is still in the early days, with no guarantees of success.
Could We Be Entering the Next Phase of Semiconductors?
There is no doubt that EUV has major issues, especially when considering that the supply chain of EUV is controlled by one singular company, ASML. Thus, if the Russian researchers can crack this problem, it would undoubtedly spark a massive wave of new developments and changes in the industry.
Not only would this introduce all kinds of challenges for the West, but it is highly likely that Russia would immediately sell these systems to those who oppose the West, including China and potentially, Iran. By doing so, Russia would be able to undermine the West's efforts at isolating nations that it deems as being a threat, while also eliminating the need for Russia to depend on the West.
At the same time, the introduction of such technologies would work massively against the West, requiring engineers to develop new independent X-Ray technologies (Russia would never allow the sale of such systems to the West for obvious reasons).
But, even if Russia does succeed in creating a sub-nanometer x-ray lithographic system, that doesn’t mean that it could be implement it at scale. Proving a system works is one thing, but getting that same system to repeatedly work across hundreds of installations is a whole other ball game.
Thus, as engineers looking in from the outside, for now, all we can do is sit and wait to see whether Russia can truly pull off this extraordinary feat of engineering.
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